Representatives of organizations, government and market reveal their expectations for 2015

Posted in Mercado


Benjamin Ferreira Neto, president of ASPACER and SINCER

While agreeing that an adjustment in macroeconomic conditions of the country is necessary, representatives of associations and the market, estimate that the tax increase perspective, higher interest rates and slow pace of economic growth will make 2015 an unusual year for various sectors of industry .

“In recent years, the ceramic coating industry has had growth in production in the double digits. For 2015, the ASPACER believes that the industry will continue to grow, but slightly above GDP growth. Therefore we can say that growth in production will be in the order of 4% and the expectation for sales is to have the flow of production “- Benjamin Ferreira Neto – president of ASPACER.

“For the segment of ceramic tiles, the expectation remains of growth, but to a lesser extent than previously expected. There are signs that there will be increased porcelain production and fall in imports “- Edson Gaidzinski – president of the National Association of Coatings Ceramic Tile Manufacturers, Sanitary Ware and Congeners (Anfacer)

“We estimate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will close 2015 with industrial high of 0.1%, after falling 1.7% in 2014. This performance a bit more positive at the annual passage, however, embeds only a minor drop in industry processing, that after shrinking 3.5% in 2014, must have a 1.1% fall in wealth generation this year. On the positive side, the emphasis should be with the mining industry, which will grow 5.2% after rising 6.6% in 2014 “- Paulo Skaf – president of Fiesp and Ciesp

“SindusCon-SP (Union of Construction) and the FGV (Getulio Vargas Foundation) estimate that the Brazilian construction should end the year with slight growth between 0% and 0.5%. The level of employment in the sector is expected to register a slight decrease of 0.3%. In the real estate segment, the decline should be higher than 1.5%. For 2015, the expectation is that the construction keep the current level of activity, without growth. The positive conditions for the sector’s performance in economic policy in 2015 will be offset by other factors “- José Romeu Ferraz Neto is president of SindusCon-SP (Industry Union of São Paulo State Building)

“I admit the possibility of high taxes on the set of measures necessary to balance the public accounts, confirming the fiscal tightening forecasts in 2015. More importantly, we explain what we’re seeing, diagnosis, why the measures. Since the middle of last year, all the research said that people wanted change. Part of these changes was the shift in the economy to bring more reality, more adherence to what is happening. And in fiscal part, a strengthening “- Joaquim Levy – Minister of Finance

“Only by considering the working days more we will have in 2015, an industry inflation of 8% added to the consumption potential, we design a real growth of 6% for the year. What is certain is that we have much work to do and it does not scare the people who work in industry and trade of construction materials. On the contrary, it motivates us “Claudio Conz – President of Anamaco.

“All the forecasts point to a 2015 difficulties, and the fact is that, so far, have not seen any concrete action be announced to lower Brazilian production costs in the coming months. One of the adverse effects of this situation is that, with this situation, the processed plastics sector, a major employer in the manufacturing industry, employment levels back to 2012, losing all jobs generated in 2013 “- José Ricardo Roriz Coelho, president of the Association of Plastics Industry (Abiplast).

“The macroeconomic adjustment has to give” exclusively “by the expenditure side. In this case, performance can even be a little better than in 2014, when the sector’s sales fell about 15%. The businessman believes that the announced names give hope “- Carlos Pastoriza, president of the Brazilian Association of Machinery and Equipment (Abimaq).

“The projection is that after an increase of 0.3% of sales in US dollars in 2014, industry growth is slightly above the expected growth for the economy in 2015. If the country grow 0.8% will grow something like 1% , is nothing stunning. “These are investments in modernization essentially this time to maintain the operation.” Fernando Figueiredo, chief executive, president of Abiquim.

“After a bad year in which the real revenues must have fallen as much as 5%, it is possible that 2015 will bring a modest advance, around 1% of the sector. “The profile of the new economic team signals important changes, such as correction of public accounts and reducing inflation, but growth with concern has not been abandoned, as suggested by the appointment of Nelson Barbosa to the Ministry of Planning” – Walter Cover, president of the Association Brazilian Building Materials (Abramat)