Industry August 2015: Investment Collapse

Posted in Indústria

The adverse external scenario, the low rates of expectations of entrepreneurs, the economic policy that reduces demand and inhibits investment, with rising interest rates and fiscal adjustment have exacerbated the structural problems of the industry.

Industrial production fell 1.2% in August 2015 compared to the immediately previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, according to the IBGE. Compared to August last year, the reduction of the total industry in August 2015 was 9.0%, maintaining the downward trend recorded for 18 consecutive months this indicator. During the year, the sector accumulated decrease of 6.9% and the last twelve months the decline is 5.7%, the worst result since December 2009 (-7.1%).

With average utilization rates of installed capacity in lower than the transformation of the industry crisis in 2009, with the FGV indicator marked 77.7% and 77.9% of NCC in August 2015, both free of influences seasonal, is not to be expected new investments in the industry soon.

From July to August 2015, only intermediate goods noted increase in production (0.2%) after six months of consecutive decline, but unable to recover then accumulated loss of 4.0%. Already in the other three categories of use, considering the seasonal adjustment, there was a decrease: semi-durable and non-durable -0.3%, durable consumer goods -4.0% and capital goods -7.6%, the most intense of all.

The debacle in capital goods is reflected in the growing and significant contraction of investments in the country. On the one hand, the import of capital goods has decreased since last year. Second, the production of these goods shrank 9.2% in 2014 and has accumulated decrease of 22.4% in the first eight months of this year, especially pulled by capital goods for transportation equipment (-28.2%), according to IBGE figures.

In quarterly terms, the production of capital goods for transportation decreased 24.7%, 26.8% and 35.5% respectively in the first, second quarters and cumulative July-August € – compared to the same period last year . The decline is severe also in the segments of capital goods for agriculture (-20.5%, -19.8% and -29.3%), construction (-24.2%, -41.4% and -56, 9%), energy (-7.9%, -22.1% and -19.9%), for mixed use (-16.6%, -20.5% and -33.4%) – Always on same order: first and second quarters and accumulated from July to August. The production of capital goods for industry, which fell more strongly last year, continues to decline: -0.6, -6.5% and -0.9%.

In the comparison between August 2015 and August 2014, a decrease of 33.2% in capital goods is the most significant among the categories of use, followed by durable consumer goods (-14.6%), semi-durable and non-durable (-7.6%) and intermediate goods (-5.5%). The collapse in production of capital goods has been occurring for 18 consecutive months this indicator, reaching all their groups in August 2015, especially capital goods for transportation equipment (-39.1), mixed-use capital goods ( -35.1%), construction (-56.8%), agriculture (-32.4%), for electricity (-19.7%) and industrial (-2.3%).

In terms of industrial segments, still in the monthly comparison, 23 of the 26 segments marked decrease in production in August 2015, especially motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-26.2%), coke, oil products and biofuels (- 8.7%), machinery and equipment (-15.3%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-30.3%), metal products (-15.7%), machinery, appliances and equipment (-18.7%).

In the accumulated from January to August of this year compared to the same eight months of 2014, the fall of 6.9% of the national production industry is widespread, with decrease in 24 of the 27 branches, 68 of the 79 subsectors and 72.4% of the 905 products surveyed. All categories indicate losses, having been 22.4% in capital goods, -14.2% in durable consumer goods, -7.2% in semi-durable and non-durable and -3.7 % in intermediate goods from January to August 2015.

Fonte: Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento Social - IEDI