In 1995, the participation of the São Paulo manufacturing industry in all of the country’s manufacturing industry was, according to the IBGE’s National Accounts of 48.7%. Such participation guarantee to Sao Paulo – by far – the first position in the ranking among the other states of the federation – the runner-up was that of Rio Grande do Sul industry, with 9.3%, and the third, Mines, 8 5%.
Over the last twenty years, industrial activity continued Paulista manufactured keeping on top of the ranking. However, it was losing “ground”. In 2009, their share was 43.0% and reached 40.3% in 2012 – the latest data of the Regional Accounts. There is more than one reason that explains this loss of market share of. One is the so-called “war tax” states. Another reason relates to the dynamics of regional development in the country.
What to expect the participation of São Paulo industry in recent years? The answer is straightforward: fall. However, it is not the fiscal war nor the regional development the reasons for the fall. Today, the loss participation of the São Paulo industrial activity in the country’s manufacturing industry is due to the severe crisis that this same industry passes. In São Paulo, the crisis has a larger dimension. The domestic industry crisis is dragged by the São Paulo industry crisis. The industry is shrinking in Brazil.
IBGE figures show that industrial production in São Paulo decreased by 1.8% in July, month opening the second half, having accumulated decrease of 8.7% in the first six months of the year. In relation to July 2014, the decline was 12.0%. Remember that in 2014 the production of São Paulo industry was the one that fell (-6.2%) all over the country – the national average, the decline was 3.1% in 2014.
The production crisis in the Brazilian industry is widespread among states and regions of the country. In twelve of the fifteen sites surveyed by the IBGE (counting São Paulo), industrial production fell in the accumulated from January to July this year. The main decreases were registered in Amazonas (-15.2%) in Rio Grande do Sul (-9.8%), Ceará (-8.9%), Bahia (-7.2%), Paraná (-7.1%), Minas Gerais (-7.0%), Santa Catarina (-6.7%) and Rio de Janeiro (-5.3%).
To turn to the Brazilian industry labor market, more specifically for manufacturing employment, there is a feeling that the crisis already plaguing took him to the bottom. In part, this is true: employment in the domestic industry lives the worst in recent memory. The problem is that, unfortunately, this downhole has proven mobile. And it has moved to … down.
According to IBGE figures for the 46th consecutive time industrial employment decreased in the series comparing month with the same month last year. That is, in this comparison, industrial employment has shown negative results since October 2011. And the decline has intensified: last July, was 6.4% – same intensity recorded in the harshest months of the year of the global crisis in 2009 .
Besides the drama generated by the widespread nature of the crisis in the domestic industry labor market, which whips the most is the magnitude of the shrinkage of employment in many different industries. Even getting in comparing July 2015 with July 2014, the seventeen eighteen surveyed segments that decreased employment, are: transportation (-11.9%), machinery and electronic material and communications (-15, 1%), machinery and equipment (-9.1%), metal products (-10.7%), food and beverages (-2.8%), other manufacturing industry (-10.1%) , rubber and plastic (-6.0%), footwear and leather (-7.5%), apparel (-5.1%), metallurgy (-7.2%), non-metallic minerals (-4, 6%), textiles (-5.4%), paper and printing (-4.4%), mining and quarrying industry (-4.7%) and wood (-6.0%).
This year will be a bad year for the industrial employment. Worse than that of 2009. In the first seven months of 2015 the decline in the number of occupied already is 5.4% with an upward bias. The groups that most influenced this result are: transportation (-10.2%), electronic machines and communication equipment (-12.9%), metal products (-10.5%), machinery and equipment ( -6.8%), food and beverages (-2.3%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-8.9%), apparel (-5.3%), footwear and leather (-7.5% ), metallurgy (-6.6%), paper and printing (-3.5%), textiles (-3.2%), mining and quarrying industry (-4.6%), non-metallic minerals (-2 3%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (-5.8%) and rubber and plastic (-2.1%).