The 63rd National Industry Survey of Construction conducted by the Industry Union of São Paulo state Civil Construction (SindusCon-SP) in May, shows that worsened the pessimism of entrepreneurs of the sector. The performance perspective of construction companies hit the lowest level in nearly 16 years, from 37.1 to 35.9 points – 3.2% fall in comparison to the survey conducted in February and 19.7% in 12 months.
Determined quarterly by SindusCon-SP since August 1999, the survey follows a scale from “0” to “100”, with the value “50” as the center. Ie below “50” can be interpreted as an unfavorable performance. The exception is only because the item financial difficulties, whose values below “50” mean minor difficulties.
The results reflect the worsening of business expectations of construction before the economic crisis in the first months of the year, when cuts were announced on the EU budget – R $ 25.7 billion in CAP and R $ 5.6 billion in My House , My Life. “Companies have experienced a strong period of growth in the sector by 2013 and many invested with the prospect that the development was more sustained. The scenario in the short term is impaired, “said the union president José Romeu Ferraz Neto. “Added to that the strong credit restrictions and rising inflation, interest and unemployment.”
SindusCon-SP believes that this situation may change in the medium term with the recent announcement of federal government investment of R $ 198.4 billion of the new stage of the investment program in Logistics (PIL), combined with the change in the rules of reserve requirements , which released R $ 22.5 billion of savings to real estate financing, and the injection of R $ 4.9 billion through the Pro-Shareholder online Guarantee Fund for Length of Service Guarantee Fund (FGTS).
Other indicators
The evaluation of entrepreneurs regarding the current performance of their companies fell from 37.7 to 34.5 points. The result is a decrease of 8.6% compared to the previous survey, conducted in February and 22.7% in 12 months, reaching its worst level since November 1999. The deterioration is superior even to that observed in other hard times in the country, as in 2003 when the construction GDP fell by 8.9%.
For the negative result of this indicator contributed especially the requirement of the employment situation. In April, building companies have reported decline of 9.2% in the stock of workers, with the dismissal of more than 300 thousand workers in 12 months, according to the job search of SindusCon-SP.
The perception of the construction on the conduct of economic policy, on the other hand, showed an improvement of 11.1% compared to the previous survey, but still at a negative level, advancing 24.9 to 27.7 points. To Ferraz Neto, the government must do more to reverse this scenario, besides the announced concessions. “The no reduction in relief of the construction payroll and the adoption of a stimulus agenda to increase productivity and competitiveness of the sector are two good examples.”
The indicator of financial difficulties reached the lowest level ever recorded by the survey since its launch in August 1999, jumping from 60.5 to 69.7 points. Worsening confirms that credit is more expensive and harder for businessmen.
On sector costs, the number stood at a level close to the presented last year, but indicated a negative perception – reflection of the plight of companies. Despite the lower difficulty manpower recruitment, high in inflation had a greater weight to companies. Other items that are sharp worsening was reduced inflation (-12.6%) and economic growth (-5.6%), which fell from 20.9 to 18.3 points and 13.2 to 12.4 points respectively .
